Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization - MIT Technology Review

In my consulting days, I espoused an unpopular theory, that 40-60% of the workforce of every Fortune 500 company could be replaced with a well-programmed computer. I was often met with incredulity and admonished that even if such a future were inevitable, it was surely not a topic for polite conversation.

We have in fact been down this road before, and to remember what that was like just replace “well-programmed computer” with “well-educated Indian.” Years ago I was speaking with the CEO of a major outsourcing firm in Bangalore. After a lengthy discourse on the future of labor, he was admirably willing to entertain some difficult questions. I pointed out that the future he proposed still smacked of labor arbitrage. What’s next? He said he’d get back to me, and retired the following year.

While the disruptive forces have moved on from outsourcing to automation, we’ve made scant progress on that question, What’s next?

That half of employment might be eliminated by automation is only half of the unpopular theory. It is the work being eliminated, the people are still there. Put differently, if you asked the average Fortune 500 CEO what innovation, expansion, new strategic direction or novel application they would pursue if half their workforce showed up at the office, equally qualified and experienced as before but liberated from their erstwhile day-to-day tasks, could they even answer? Would they understand the question? Would they be capable of thinking so creatively and at such scale? Would they have a long list of grand plans begging for a chance amidst the humdrum of everyday corporate life? Would they rise to the occasion?

Or would they demur, cut costs, sell shares and promptly retire?

When we wound down the horse-drawn buggy industry, we didn’t lament the difficulty of retraining stable boys to be lathe operators. We were busy inventing automobiles and building fast food restaurants with drive-throughs, and hiring by the truckload to make it all happen. Well, some of us were. We called them leaders.

Is unemployment at the hands of automation the result of a supposed lack of skills on the part of the displaced, a pseudo-meritocratic attempt to blame the victim, or does it merely reveal a lack of vision among the current lot who claim the privilege to lead? Maybe a machine can do their job better.